When prediction fails, execution wins

I recently found myself watching Owning Manhattan on Netflix. It’s essentially several episodes of people selling extraordinarily expensive apartments while attempting to convince one another that they are the cleverest person in New York.

I appreciate that admitting this probably does little for my credibility, but there was something interesting buried beneath all the glamour and television theatrics.

The people getting deals over the line were the ones focused on execution and, looking at the lending market this side of the Atlantic, there’s probably a lesson in that.

Brokers are operating in a market that has become considerably harder to read. While the Bank of England’s recent decision to hold Base Rate at 3.75% provides some stability, brokers are still operating against a backdrop of uncertainty.

The full economic effects of geopolitical tensions are rarely felt immediately, and markets continue to weigh up what higher energy costs, supply-chain pressures and wider global instability could mean over the months ahead.

Investors are continuing to adjust to changes in taxation, construction costs remain elevated and planning delays continue to affect project timelines. While the Base Rate has obviously stabilised, there is still no clear consensus on where economic growth, inflation and property values will sit 12 months from now.

None of this means activity has stopped. Despite what some headlines might have you believe, people are still buying, selling, refinancing and building things.

However, it does create a market where borrowers, investors and lenders are spending more time assessing risk and questioning assumptions than they were a few years ago. Consequently, many transactions are taking longer to come together, lenders are taking a closer look at risk and brokers are spending more time structuring cases before they ever reach an underwriter’s desk.

Deals that might have looked relatively straightforward, often require more thought, more planning and better structuring before they reach completion.

Pricing remains important, yet many of the conversations taking place between brokers and borrowers have moved well beyond the question of who has the best rate.

More often than not, they centre on whether a transaction can be structured in a way that actually works. Can the timeline be achieved? Does the exit stand up to scrutiny? Is there enough flexibility built into the facility if circumstances go awry?

Nobody ever phones a broker to thank them for finding the cheapest rate on a deal that failed to complete.

The Bank of England’s Q1 2026 Credit Conditions Survey paints an interesting picture, too. Credit remains available, lenders expect demand for mortgage borrowing to increase and there is clearly appetite to do business.

That will not come as a great surprise to most brokers. It is worth noting, however, that at the same time, the survey highlights that lenders remain focused on risk and credit quality.

There is certainly liquidity, but lenders are operating against the same backdrop as everybody else. Economic uncertainty has not disappeared, geopolitical tensions have not magically resolved themselves and property markets remain a favourite subject for people making confident predictions about things they cannot possibly know.

The challenge is not a lack of funding. The challenge is ensuring deals are structured in a way that makes sense.

As a result, exit strategies are being scrutinised more carefully and we have noticed property types sitting outside the mainstream receiving additional attention.

That could be a semi-commercial property, a mixed-use asset, a refurbishment project or a site with planning considerations. None of those situations are unusual, but lenders are spending more time examining how the transaction works and how the borrower intends to exit.

Many of these borrowers are experienced investors, landlords and business owners. They are not presenting unusual propositions, nor are they taking excessive risks. However, they may be working towards a planning outcome, refinancing an asset that requires additional time or managing multiple stakeholders. Situations like these are becoming familiar territory for many brokers.

Ultimately, markets do not need to be completely predictable for transactions to happen. What matters is having a clear understanding of the risks, realistic expectations, a lender willing to engage with the nuances of a case and a structure that can withstand scrutiny. 

In an environment where certainty remains elusive, brokers who can navigate complexity and deliver well-executed outcomes will continue to provide the greatest value to their clients.