Predicting the future

We see headlines that on the 21st June, pubs, bars and restaurants will be overflowing. Social media has people saying that they will not go into pubs that have restrictions. Yet on the other hand, there are those who say they will only go into indoor places where restrictions such as vaccine passports are required.

This is still a global pandemic and we are very far from being in a post-pandemic world, if such a thing exists.

The UK might be one of the leaders in vaccinating against the virus, but no vaccine is 100% successful. We could still have 10% of the population that are susceptible. It will be how badly that 10% suffer from the virus and the long-term after-effects that will have a big influence on the future. Also, if other countries are still having outbreaks, which seems likely, how do we prevent them from spreading to the 10% of the UK population who may be at risk?

In a way, we may experience a similar world to that before smoking bans were introduced. Depending upon their clientele, different outlets will offer different options.
Customer demand dictated the size of the no smoking areas in any one outlet. Customer demand could in future dictate what Covid-safe measures will be included in which outlets.

Another debate being had is about remote working. Last summer the Government and certain media outlets were encouraging people to get back to the office to support city centre businesses. Very few firms and individuals budged.

While Goldman Sachs have said its culture requires office working other large employers such as Aviva, Capita and HSBC will accommodate flexible remote working. Some are already looking to reduce their office estate as a result of that shift.

Many office workers are going to face a choice. Will they continue to work from home? Will they want to get back to the office as quickly as they can? Or will they want to mix and match? As a result of those decisions, will this create an over-supply of office buildings, etc?

We need to also consider the impact of virtual meetings. I was on a call a few days ago, and before the meeting got underway, participants were talking about post-lockdown meetings. One said they were going to be selective about what meetings they would agree to attend in the future.

“Why am I going to spend two hours travelling to attend a one-hour meeting – I will ensure that the meetings I attend will be a productive use of my time.”

On the flip side, many people have homes where home video conferencing is difficult, perhaps because of the strength of broadband, particularly at busy times such as school holidays. Or the broadband might not be that reliable full-stop. Will town centres offer video studios which can be booked for private video conferences a short distance from people’s homes?

This brings us nicely to the future of the high street. While online shopping may retreat from its pandemic highs it is still highly likely to keep a large proportion of its gains made during lockdown. To attract footfall, will more stores offer click and collect for brands other than their own or locker facilities?

This all indicates there could be significant changes of use of commercial properties. You may also have your own thoughts about other changes that will occur.

This could feed into the residential property market. How will redundant commercial property space be utilised? Even before the pandemic we were seeing offices being converted into residential apartments. For older people, could town centre living have a new future? Perhaps within your old Debenhams? Compared with suburban or rural living, is there an attraction to living in a highly accessible town centre apartment with all the facilities you need on your doorstep?

What changes materialise over the coming years is anyone’s guess. Probably all the things I mention will occur to different degrees. The extent of each will depend upon demand and what more importantly becomes available.

The later life market therefore needs to be flexible. More appropriate residential locations and accommodation could become available for the elderly. This may be cheaper than their existing home and be seen as a means to release equity. Alternatively, a better quality of life with cheaper living costs may be achieved by borrowing against their existing home’s equity to purchase a more expensive property.

Either way the changes that the post-pandemic world will inevitably bring may result in the provision of more suitable living accommodation for the elderly. And that can only be a good thing.