Could falling US inflation allow the Bank of England to start reversing recent rate hikes?

Figures published today show that annual inflation in the United States fell to 5% in March, down from 6% in February and a 40-year high of 9.1% in June 2021.

The latest figures for the UK show that CPI inflation saw an unexpected rise to 10.4% in February, following three consecutive months of falls. However, growth remains below the peak of 11.1% in October.

In addition, the Office for Budget Responsibility still predicts that UK inflation will fall to 2.9% by the end of 2023.

Earlier this week, the International Monetary Fund said that “recent increases in real interest rates are likely to be temporary" and that when inflation is brought back under control, central banks are likely to ease monetary policy and bring interest rates "back towards pre-pandemic levels".

Financial advisers responded with their views on whether UK inflation could follow a similar path, allowing the Bank of England to ease monetary policy in the months ahead.

Rob Gill, managing director at mortgage broker Altura Mortgage Finance, said: "The saying, 'When the US sneezes, the UK catches a cold' has long illustrated the close links between both economies and how, where the US leads, the UK tends to follow. This significant fall in US inflation should therefore translate to our side of the pond before long, in turn allowing the Bank of England to start reversing recent rate hikes."

Philip Dragoumis, owner of wealth manager Thera Wealth Management, commented: "Inflation is a 2022 story and not just in the US but also in the UK and Europe. Interest rates have been hiked so much that banks are going bust. The issue now is growth, or rather the lack of it. All the indicators are pointing to growth slowing and even a possible recession. The central banks can either start acknowledging this now, or just make it worse by continuing to hike."

Bradley Lay, small business adviser and wealth expert at Bradley Lay, said: "The latest US inflation data is encouraging news. With the CPI increasing only 5% over the past year, the Federal Reserve may hold off on any rate hikes, creating a more stable economic environment. This could have a positive impact on the Bank of England's next rate decision and could potentially provide a boost to the UK mortgage and property market. Additionally, equity markets may experience increased investor confidence as the threat of rising interest rates diminishes."

Chris Barry, director at Thomas Legal, added: "The latest US inflation data makes for positive and promising reading. The Fed is more likely to ease rate hikes, meaning we should start to see a period of rate stability over the coming months, possibly followed by gradual reductions. The UK has historically followed the US closely so this latest CPI print should provide the UK housing market with some much-needed confidence."