What will the market look like once lockdown begins to end?

Even while there are suggestions that cases of the coronavirus have now peaked, it seems patently obvious that any relaxation of the lockdown measures will be phased in and will certainly involve a blanket withdrawal.

In other words, as we’re already seeing, the Government is going to take a view on the types of businesses that should be allowed to open, with a focus remaining on social distancing being followed even in places like schools, shops, transport and the like. Perhaps it will mean the mandatory wearing of face masks in these places, although the ability to ‘police’ such activity will be incredibly difficult.

The big question in the property sector, of course, is at what point the Government might deem our market ‘ready to open’. We’ve seen some house builders start to open construction sites, but what of estate agencies, what of lender and adviser operations, and – perhaps most importantly at the moment – what about surveyors and their ability to carry out physical valuations?

This latter point may well act as the most immediate catalyst to the housing/mortgage market moving from its current situation, but it comes with its own difficulties as well. Will surveyors be required to wear PPE? Will they be able to carry out their jobs with social distancing in place? How might home-owners react to surveyors visiting property? Will they be perceived as a risk that it’s too early to take?

Of course, it’s also understandable that all stakeholders are looking a little further into the future, and it’s not just about the physical opening up of our market, but a real consideration of what it will look like once the lockdown begins to end.

Many commentators have suggested that a serious and significant pent-up demand will – at that point – be unleashed. While I tend to agree, there’s also the danger here that we, as a collective, are not as up to speed as we will need to be when/if this arrives? Will we have the necessary capacity to deal with all this potential activity? How will service standards fare if we are trying to cram three-four months’ business into the first few week’s post-lockdown?

Then there is the potential that the much-talked about pent-up demand simply does not materialise. Might people who feel battered and bruised from this most recent period may simply want to get back on their feet again and pursue stability rather than jump straight into a potential house move, with all the stresses and strains this could bring.

In that regard, there are now plenty of calls for Government action in order to encourage more housing market activity, whether that is a short-term stamp duty holiday which might well ensure some immediate savings for those who want to purchase, or a more long-term goal in terms of trying to get the house-purchase timescale down from many months to weeks. It looks likely that many will be looking at the Government to ensure the environment is the best possible one for housing transactions to be ratcheted up quickly.

There are clearly going to be opportunities post-lockdown and, especially if the Government decides a helping hand is required, there is clearly much to be said for advisory firms ensuring they have their house in order to be able to benefit from this. But, while it’s important to look ahead to the future, it’s also valuable not to look too far forward.

Without doubt, this is the most challenging market any of us have faced for the past decade, and it may well be the business we write now, the relationships we make now, the sectors and products and advice we cover now, that will make all the difference to us in terms of making it out of these weeks in the best shape possible to move forward.

Every piece of business counts, and every client need should be addressed to ensure firms generate the income they need right now. The good news is that business is still being written, activity is ongoing, and clients still have wants and needs through this period. We should ensure we focus appropriately on what is to come, but it’s imperative that we focus specifically on the here and now.