Need for affordable housing outpacing delivery by 12 to 1

The gap between the rate of social and affordable housing change versus non-working population change is the largest since 2019, widening 173% in a year, new research from property and legal data firm, Search Acumen, shows. 

This means that additional non-working people, or those between 16 and 64 who are economically inactive and often most in need of social care, are outnumbering new affordable and social housing numbers 12 to 1. 

The research suggests that the widening gap points to England’s growing housing deficit, with a potential shortfall of 296,606 affordable and social homes in 2024. 

As well as outpacing new housing, data shows that the rise in economically inactive individuals has been nearly 10 times greater than the increase in the working-age population since 2019.

Whilst the data available on social housing focuses on England against a broader UK population comparison, Search Acumen says the research is indicative of wider trends of the housing crisis faced by the current government.

Search Acumen’s analysis shows that 2023 recorded the highest yearly rise in population growth in over 75 years, against a marked decline in affordable home build starts. Dropping by nearly 40% in 2024, this is the largest drop in ten years and the lowest number of build starts since 2015 when records began. 

Examining the data in detail, the number of starts in London decreased by 88% between 2022 and 2024, in which the number of London Affordable Rent starts sat at just nine units. This decline is led by the end of the 2016-23 Affordable Homes programme that was the main funding source for this tenure. 

Andrew Lloyd, managing director of Search Acumen, commented: “Our research looks at trends as to whether we are building enough homes fast enough. We know the answer of this to be no, but what is troubling is just how far behind we really are. In England, there were approximately 4.5 million social homes, down from 5.5 million in 1979 thanks to long-term losses in demolitions, conversions, and inadequate rebuilding. Looking at social rent alone, over the past decade there was a net loss of 177,500 homes in England, meanwhile the waiting list climbed to 1.33 million households last year up 10% since 2022. Forecasts suggest this could rise to 2 million households by 2034 if social homebuilding stays unchanged. With a growing base of people not working, the mismatch between supply and demand is acute.”

“For the current government, closing this gap will be hard, but Labour is keen to prove themselves and show results within their electoral term. There is hope things will change, but the complex economic backdrop of tighter margins, inflated costs and skill pressures on housebuilders weigh heavy against social need.”