Brokers split on outcome of November's Bank Rate decision

Mortgage professionals have defied economists' consensus of a November interest rate increase, with the vote almost even between a hold and a rise.

Attendees at yesterday's Mortgage Adviser Expo Manchester were asked whether they think the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee will vote to raise, hold, or cut interest rates at their next meeting on the 5th November.

55% think the MPC will raise interest rates, but 42.5% expect a further hold, with rate rises instead coming in 2027.

Just one respondent thought the Bank could reduce interest rates this year.

The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee voted 6-3 to hold Bank Rate at 3.75% in its latest meeting last week, the sixth consecutive hold.

However, markets have priced in a rise to 4% later this year and two further increases in 2027.

Despite this, mortgage industry professionals aren't as certain over the path of Bank Rate, with 42.5% predicting the MPC will continue its 'wait and see' approach.

Rozi Jones, editor of Financial Reporter, commented: "While the market may be increasingly pricing in a November rate rise, the mortgage market’s view is far from unanimous. With a significant proportion of advisers expecting another hold, the MPC still has plenty of scope to surprise the market — and both brokers and borrowers will be watching closely to see which way the vote goes.”