Good news, bad news

The wife says the good news is that the airbag in the car works.

I am sure that you know many other good news, bad news ‘jokes’.

When life becomes uncertain as it is at present there are plenty of good news, bad news scenarios. But we are all different, so what would your preference be? To receive the good or the bad news first?

I wake up in the morning, the good news is the sun is shining and I am alive. The bad news is that there is a virus amongst us that could make me feel unwell, make me very ill, or if I am really unlucky it could kill me.

Alternatively, the bad news is there is a virus amongst us that could make me feel unwell, make me very ill or if I am really unlucky it could kill me. The good news is I have not caught it and, if I take the right precautions, I am unlikely to catch it and the sun is shining.

In times such as this, messaging to your audience becomes even more important. I have seen a lot of estate agents predicting what is going to happen to the housing market once lockdown measures are lifted. As we are all in this most unique of situations, and we don’t know how long the lockdown will last, how can we know when the housing market will fully reopen let alone know what will happen after that?

Past performance of house prices following historic economic downturns may not provide a clue to how they will react this time. In that sense, it may be worth agents keeping their predictions to themselves. The good news is that houses will be worth something. The bad news is that they will be worth less than they were at the start of the year. Anything else is just a guess.

What concerns me now however is how we re-emerge from lockdown.

I have seen several polls of parents’ attitudes to their children returning to school if there was still a chance of catching the Covid virus. Around a third said they would return immediately. Those remaining are almost evenly split between a response of ‘not for a few weeks’, ‘not for several months’ and ‘not until a vaccine was available’.

Why won’t parents let their children return to school? Would the answers be the same to the question, would you view an occupied house? Or, would you invite strangers into you house to view it?

Although there is a speed limit of 70mph on motorways, many drivers proceed at a slower speed. In the same regard, if the Government removed all lockdown restrictions tomorrow many would still socially isolate. They will not come out until they feel it is safe to do so.

Estate agents have already reacted by introducing virtual viewings, and they may well have to ramp these up in number. That may work in the rental market but they would not be much more than a glorified sales brochure. A house purchase, like retirement, is a huge purchase. Get it wrong and you can make a costly mistake.

There is not going to be a rapid return to housing market levels we were experiencing before the crisis. It could be that empty properties will be at a premium.

What does this mean for the later life market? Because of the resulting economic downturn some will be forced to retire early with insufficient pension savings. Their immediate reaction could be to downsize to a smaller property to release funds to finance their retirement. If the housing market is going to be depressed due to lack of properties for sale or purchase, ignoring their own attitudes, will this option be readily available?

The later life lending market has responded well to the virus crisis, introducing desktop valuations and a simplified legal processes. The hard work put in by many in the industry to get to this stage may pay off two-fold.

Firstly, they have been able to provide a continuing service to consumers during the lockdown. Secondly, and more importantly, they will be able to provide solutions during the long period of getting to a new normal.

The bad news is the way the virus has affected the lives of so many and its effects will continue to be felt for many years. The good news is the way the later life market has responded - it is ready for the long haul back to ‘normality’.