State pension triple lock to be ‘adjusted’ from 2030

Prime Minister Andy Burnham has announced that the pensions triple lock will be 'adjusted' from 2030 to rise every year "at least by prices or 2.5%", during his first conference speech as Prime Minister.
 
Under the current rules, the policy, which Labour has pledged to maintain until the end of this Parliament, means that the state pension rises by the highest of inflation, wages or 2.5%.
 
The Institute for Fiscal Studies predicts that the triple lock could add as much as £45 billion a year to the welfare bill by 2050.
 
During his speech, Burnham said: "The state pension will continue to rise every year at least by prices or 2.5%." 

"And it will hold its value relative to earnings over time so that pensioners will always share in the rising prosperity of the nation.

"This change will generate significant savings, which we will use to build up our own National Care Service."

The PM noted that he "may pay a political price" for this announcement, adding "someone has to go through the pain barrier and rip the plaster off."

Wages grew by 3.9% between May-July 2025 and May-July 2026, with that figure likely to determine the increase in the state pension next April. A 3.9% rise would take the full new state pension to around £13,036 a year, approximately £466 above the £12,570 personal allowance.
 
Another above-inflation increase has added to the wider debate around the affordability of the triple lock, with some industry experts calling for a transition to a "double lock that protects increases in line with working-age benefits".

The British Chambers of Commerce recently called for the triple lock to be removed in order to help fund measures aimed at tackling youth worklessness.
 
Recent findings from Quilter reveal the central role the state pension continues to play in supporting retirement incomes, accounting for almost a quarter (24%) of income across all retirees.
 
Reliance is significantly higher among some groups. For retirees aged 65-79 with below-average retirement incomes of £25,000 or less, the state pension provides 57% of retirement income, while for those aged over 80 with below-average retirement incomes, it accounts for 54%.
 
Jon Greer, head of retirement policy at Quilter, commented: “The triple lock debate has been repeatedly kicked down the road, and it seems we are nearing a juncture where it cannot go on. On one side of the debate are concerns about affordability and the growing cost of supporting an ageing population. On the other is the reality that millions of retirees depend on the state pension for a substantial proportion of their income.
 
“Both arguments have merit, but debating the future of the triple lock in isolation misses the bigger question. Front and centre of any debate must be the role we want the state pension to play in the future, the level of income it should provide relative to earnings, and how that can be delivered sustainably over the long term.
 
"Retirees are not blind to the challenges facing younger generations. Our research shows many already provide significant financial support to children and grandchildren. Establishing a sustainable long-term framework for the state pension would not only protect today's pensioners but provide future generations with the certainty and security they will need when they eventually reach retirement themselves.
 
“The government should seize the opportunity presented by the Pensions Commission to establish a durable framework for state pension adequacy and uprating. Any reform should be the product of thorough consultation and a clear vision for retirement provision in the UK, and there must be a lasting settlement that balances adequacy for retirees, affordability for taxpayers and fairness between generations, while commanding broad political support.
 
“People save and plan for retirement over decades, not parliamentary terms. Giving greater certainty over the future shape of the state pension would help people plan with more confidence and make better long-term financial decisions.”

Industry reactions

Kate Smith, head of pensions at Aegon, said: "We welcome the Prime Minister's decision to adjust the state pension triple lock, with a double lock from 2030. Thereafter, the state pension will be increased by at least the increase in prices, or 2.5%, but holding its value relative to earnings. Aegon has long called for a serious conversation about how the state pension can remain affordable, sustainable, and fair across generations, so we’re pleased to see the Prime Minister leading the way and giving certainty for future state pension increases.  

"It is important to remember that nothing changes for pensioners now. The government has reiterated that the triple lock remains in place until 2029. For millions of people, the state pension is the bedrock of retirement income and will continue to be so.

“Increases in earnings will still have a role to play, so pensioners are able to share in the relative prosperity and won’t lose out if UK earnings significantly outperform price increases. However, it’s unclear how this will work in practice.  It could possibly involve an element of smoothing of earnings increases over a few years relative to the increases in prices and the 2.5% increase. We await the details.”

Ash Daniells, legal director at Kennedys, commented: "The proposed abolition of the triple lock represents a potentially significant shift in the retirement planning landscape. 

"Although the changes are not expected to take effect until 2030, the announcement introduces an additional layer of uncertainty for individuals planning for retirement and certainly for the financial advisers supporting them. For advisers, the key challenge will be ensuring that retirement projections and recommendations remain appropriate in light of any changes to future state pension uprating. 

"This will require consideration of how different scenarios could affect clients’ retirement income, particularly where individuals are heavily reliant on the state pension."

Sean Drury, head of tax at Blick Rothenberg, added: “So the government has kicked the can down the road on the triple lock, but only till 2030 (after the next election), and the proposal seems clear: a move back to linking state pensions with earnings. But what does this mean for the wider discussion on how we provide for retirement?

“As most people recall, the triple lock on the state pension states, in simple terms, that the minimum amount the state pension can rise is by the lower of inflation, earnings or 2.5% and was really introduced in 2010 to help ‘fix’ the fact that as the state pension was solely linked to an Inflationary adjustment, the pension had, over a period of strong wage growth, begun to lag behind earnings (i.e making pensioners comparatively poorer than individuals in work).

“In many ways, because in every year since the pensioners have ‘won’, the gradual equation has occurred, so the reason for the triple lock can be regarded as achieved.

“Pensions in the UK are a more complicated picture than in Europe and are more akin to the US and Australia, with a more equal balance between state, workplace and public pensions giving a more stable balance than many European Countries, especially France, where the provision of their state pension is rapidly bankrupting the country because of demographic challenges and changes.”