UK ducks recession despite weakest growth in a decade: ONS

GDP grew by 0.3% in Q3, down from 1.0% in Q3 2018 to the lowest quarterly rate of growth since Q1 2010.

Monthly GDP growth was negative 0.1% in September 2019, with all main sectors showing either zero or negative growth. However a weak Q2, along with strength in services and construction in July 2019, resulted in a positive Q3 result.

Artur Baluszynski, head of research at Henderson Rowe, commented: “The UK has ducked a recession but has seen the weakest growth in a decade. Brexit aside, the UK will struggle to expand if the rest of the global economy is slowing down. After a strong July and August, September was weaker. We would expect next quarter to remain modest, despite the seasonal boost, as trade tensions and political uncertainty are set to continue.”

Andy Scott, associate director at JCRA, added: “The UK economy avoided recession after growth rebounded in the third quarter, but the weakest annual pace of growth in almost a decade highlights how Brexit continues to slow economic activity.

“Today’s data contains nothing particularly surprising and hence sterling barely reacted with a shrug. The continual delay to the Brexit process means the UK remains an uncertain environment to invest in for businesses, which results in slower growth. The fact that a general election is under way in the fourth quarter, with the risk of either a hung parliament, or potentially a socialist Labour party forming a coalition government, suggests a further deceleration or stagnation as we close out 2019. While the fog of Brexit hangs in the air, the clouds over the economy continue to darken."