NIESR say GDP has grown - but will slow 'significantly'

Their monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.8 per cent in the three months ending in September after growth of 0.1 per cent in the three months ending in August 2012. This is the most robust rate of growth since the three months to July 2010. However, the strength of the figure for the three months to September is largely an artefact of special events. Economic growth is expected to be at a significantly slower pace in the coming quarters.

A note accompanying these results makes clear that the underlying rate of growth is weaker than these figures suggest. Stripping out the effects of special events (the reversal of the negative effect from the additional bank holiday in June 2011 and the allocation of Olympics ticket sales from last year) suggest underlying growth is closer to 0.2-0.3 per cent per quarter.