NIESR: fall in GDP growth indicates 'subdued' 2016
NIESR's monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.4% in the three months ending in January 2016 after growth of 0.5% in the three months ending in December 2015.
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The softening of growth in the 3 months to January was primarily driven by weakness in the production sector in November and December, and NIESR now expects a 'subdued' start to 2016.
James Warren, NIESR Research Fellow, said:
“The softening of growth in the 3 months to January was primarily driven by weakness in the production sector at the end of last year. Despite our estimates indicating a subdued start to 2016, we do expect the economy to grow by 2.3 per cent this year, primarily driven by consumer spending. However, negative contributions from net trade are expected to weigh heavily on growth. There exist a number of downside risks that have the potential to exacerbate this, should they materialise.”
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