Government expected to miss housebuilding targets by over 80,000

The Conservative Party renewed its 2015 commitment to build one million new homes by the end of 2020 during campaigning ahead of the 2017 general election last June.

According to MHCLG figures, the number of new homes started between mid-2015 - when the pledge began - and the end of 2017 was 386,160 and the number of new build starts has increased by 7,235 on average over the past two years.

But even if that rate of growth can be maintained, building will begin on only 529,950 homes between 2018 and 2020. This means the government will fail to meet its commitment, building 916,110 homes by the end of 2020 - a shortfall of 83,890.

If this rate of growth cannot be maintained, the Conservatives will renege on their pledge by an even greater margin. Based on a two-year average (2016 and 2017), only 474,690 new homes would be started between January 2018 and the end of 2020. This would create a shortfall of 139,150 homes (13.9%).

Despite an election campaign that saw both major parties focus heavily on housebuilding, the number of new homes started in Q3 and Q4 2017 dropped to 76,250, a fall of 1.52% on the same period in 2016 when there were 77,430 new build starts.

Recent figures from NHBC also show a slower start to 2018, with 36,637 new homes registered in the first three months of the year compared to 42,405 in the same period last year, a decrease of 14%.

Sam Mitchell, CEO of HouseSimple, said: “It could be a case of better late than never if the rate of building growth is to be believed but it’s going to be a tall order to keep this going for the next seven years.

“The government’s main concern should be the anticipated failure to deliver on its most basic pledge to build one million homes by the end of 2020. If they fail, critics will simply paint the more lofty aspirations to build 300,000 homes a year as a piece of political theatre.

“This issue deserves to be more than a distraction for voters and it would help if the revolving door of housing ministers were to stop. The housing crisis is real and affordability problems play havoc with other parts of the economy as first-time buyers in particular are forced to part with significant chunks of their disposable income in order to get on the housing ladder.”