Further Bank Rate cut unlikely as GDP defies expectations

The Bank of England's MPC are now unlikely to cut bank rate at next month's meeting after GDP growth was higher than expected in Q3.


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Thursday 27th October 2016

bank of england boe

"What today’s release does do is pour cold water on the chances of a further rate cut next month."

In August, the committee voted unanimously to cut Bank Rate. Despite then voting unanimously to hold the rate in September, the majority of members expected to support a further cut in Bank Rate during the course of 2016 to around 0.1%.

GDP rose by 0.5% in Q3, according to the first ONS release to cover a full quarter of data following the EU referendum.

The ONS says the "pattern of growth continues to be broadly unaffected following the EU referendum", with a strong performance in the services industries offsetting falls in other industrial groups.

Ben Brettell, Senior Economist at Hargreaves Lansdown, said: "What today’s release does do is pour cold water on the chances of a further rate cut next month. In August the Bank said the majority of MPC members expected a further rate cut later this year, but at the time it was forecasting zero GDP growth. A stronger-than-expected Q3 performance is likely to mean the Bank leaves policy unchanged when it meets in November."

However Jonathan Chitty, investment analyst at Brown Shipley, said that "with Article 50 yet to be triggered, negotiations with the EU yet to start, we are still a long way from understanding the full impact of Brexit".

Author:
Rozi Jones Editor Editor
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