Annual house price growth picks up to 1.9%: Nationwide
Annual house price growth increased to 1.9% in November, up from 1.6% the previous month, according to the latest Nationwide house price index.
"Fast forward one month and if the needle on the annual growth rate doesn’t move, then Nationwide will have been 100% wrong."
The modest 0.3% increase means that house price growth for the whole of 2018 is likely to exceed Nationwide’s earlier forecast of 1%.
Robert Gardner, Nationwide's chief economist, said: “Looking forward, much will depend on how broader economic conditions evolve. In the near term, the squeeze on household budgets and the uncertain economic outlook is likely to continue to dampen demand, even though borrowing costs remain low and the unemployment rate is near 40-year lows.
“If the uncertainty lifts in the months ahead and employment continues to rise, there is scope for activity to pick-up through next year. The squeeze on household incomes is already moderating and policymakers have signalled that, if the economy performs as they expect, interest rates are only expected to rise at a modest pace and to a limited extent in the years ahead."
Lucy Pendleton, founder and director of James Pendleton estate agents, commented: “Fast forward one month and if the needle on the annual growth rate doesn’t move, then Nationwide will have been 100% wrong.
“The lender’s prediction of a 1% increase in house prices in 2018 is starting to look a little shaky on paper but, in truth, there’s not actually much in it.
“Run the numbers and, in fact, the average house price will only have to drop £776 over the next month for them to be right on the money. It takes a brave economist to make public predictions like this and a sizeable chunk of political uncertainty thanks to Brexit may well have helped this one stand the test of time.
“Annual growth remains stuck near five year lows and those clouds are unlikely to clear until politics gets off the doorstep.”
Jeremy Leaf, north London estate agent and former RICS residential chairman, added: "These figures are better than expected, after unchanged monthly price and lowest annual growth for more than five years last month. They come on the back of encouraging mortgage approval and transaction figures yesterday which show, once again, that realistic buyers and sellers are taking advantage of very low mortgage rates and shrugging off Brexit concerns.
"These seem to be weighing more heavily on buyers in London and the south east as the old north/south divide is turned on its head with the property market in the capital and its environs now dragging down the rest of the country.
"Looking forward, we don’t expect any major changes in the period leading up to Christmas unless our departure from the EU is finalised more clearly one way or the other but there is no doubt we are finding there is considerable pent-up demand awaiting more settled times."
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